Economy - lower, where is the soil? 2

Economy – lower, where is the soil?

The game has been going on for over a year: every few weeks a major financial institute predicts a decline in the global economy – the OEZD was again in the spotlight. "Curiously enough", here we avoid the recession without words.

An overview of economic forecasts

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OEZD) expects the G20 countries to experience the weakest economic growth since the financial crisis of 2019 and 2020. For the global economy in its together, a decline of 3.6% (2018) to 2.9% and for 2020 to 3.0%. Slower growth is expected for almost all G20 countries, with the exception of Japan, Turkey and France. Predictions in detail:

  • USA 2019 – 2.4%, 2020 – 2.0%, after 2.9% in 2018
  • China 2020 – 5.7%, the slowest growth in decades
  • Germany in 2019 – 0.5%, 2020 only 0.6%, so you are much more skeptical than the German economic institutes in their autumn report. Their forecasts for the coming year ranged from 0.9 to 1.4%. So no recession – hope dies last, you could formulate a little cynical.

There is no need to speculate on the reasons for the slowdown in the world economy, this has already been the subject of many discussions: the trade war and the restraint of investors. Even the countermeasure recipe proposed by Laurence Boone, chief economist of the OEZD, has already proven itself: dismantling tariff barriers and investments in infrastructure. One could almost have the impression that the big institutions have mutilated themselves, as some analysts do in their economic forecasts.

conclusion

If we look at the evolution of the economic forecasts of the major economic institutes, including governments, we can see a constant readjustment. What can be done with such data which, retrospectively, are changed quarterly and almost in line with the competition? Recognize the trend, maybe, but not more.

Of course, institutions should not set oil on fire or fuel negative developments, just as central banks do in their statements. But these considerations are really not helpful. For this, the index levels of the main stock exchanges are a little better. Even though these are often wrong, before the institutes confirmed the recession or the strong growth, it was already possible to read it on the health records of the months before (most of the time).

When did the economy reach the bottom?